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Ford Five Hundred reliability - how does it compare?

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mkaresh
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Post by mkaresh » Tue Nov 08, 2005 12:56 pm

johnclineii wrote:It's the thingy that predates the blossom!
Seems there are some sophisticated wits around here as well.
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johnclineii
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Post by johnclineii » Tue Nov 08, 2005 6:45 pm

mkaresh wrote:
johnclineii wrote:It's the thingy that predates the blossom!
Seems there are some sophisticated wits around here as well.
Yep, but Angel doesn't usually post as early in the morning or early in the evening as I do! :)

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angel500
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Post by angel500 » Tue Nov 08, 2005 7:31 pm

Because I'm usually online early morning. Early and/or late evening. And if it's really early morning then I either can't sleep or have been up all night.

"bud" is a nasty beer. If I"m going to have a beer I prefer a Miller Lite, MGD Light, Icehouse or a Coors if nothing else is available. ;)

angel

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Post by JJ » Wed Nov 09, 2005 1:26 pm

angel500 wrote:Because I'm usually online early morning. Early and/or late evening. And if it's really early morning then I either can't sleep or have been up all night.

"bud" is a nasty beer. If I"m going to have a beer I prefer a Miller Lite, MGD Light, Icehouse or a Coors if nothing else is available. ;)

angel
Yuck. Cheap beer. I'll take a Radeberger or Warsteiner. Life is too short to drink cheap beer.
N.Y.S. Certified Auto Technician. I am retired from the automotive field. 2005 FORD Fivehundred SE 6 speed auto FWD Traction control. Build date: 11/16/2004. G-Tech tested 0-60MPH 8.34 1/4 mile 16.38 @85.9MPH.

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Post by tfaas » Thu Nov 10, 2005 10:08 am

JJ wrote:
angel500 wrote:Because I'm usually online early morning. Early and/or late evening. And if it's really early morning then I either can't sleep or have been up all night.

"bud" is a nasty beer. If I"m going to have a beer I prefer a Miller Lite, MGD Light, Icehouse or a Coors if nothing else is available. ;)

angel
Yuck. Cheap beer. I'll take a Radeberger or Warsteiner. Life is too short to drink cheap beer.
Why drink beer when God gave us the means to make vodka? :wink:
2005 Silver Frost SE/ FWD Six Speed T/C

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JJ
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Post by JJ » Thu Nov 10, 2005 12:48 pm

tfaas wrote:
JJ wrote:
angel500 wrote:Because I'm usually online early morning. Early and/or late evening. And if it's really early morning then I either can't sleep or have been up all night.

"bud" is a nasty beer. If I"m going to have a beer I prefer a Miller Lite, MGD Light, Icehouse or a Coors if nothing else is available. ;)

angel
Yuck. Cheap beer. I'll take a Radeberger or Warsteiner. Life is too short to drink cheap beer.
Why drink beer when God gave us the means to make vodka? :wink:
Beer makes a good chaser for the vodka. :wink:
N.Y.S. Certified Auto Technician. I am retired from the automotive field. 2005 FORD Fivehundred SE 6 speed auto FWD Traction control. Build date: 11/16/2004. G-Tech tested 0-60MPH 8.34 1/4 mile 16.38 @85.9MPH.

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Post by johnclineii » Thu Nov 10, 2005 7:49 pm

I take it this is not the time or place to put in a pitch for Diet A & W??

john cline ii, who, like Snoopy, is breaking out the root beer tomorrow to drink to the Aces, and all the other veterans!

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Post by Toaderly » Thu Nov 10, 2005 9:02 pm

tfaas wrote:Why drink beer when God gave us the means to make vodka? :wink:
Potato whiskey?

Toaderly, who will celebrate 6 beautiful years of sobriety on 11/22.

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Post by angel500 » Thu Nov 10, 2005 9:22 pm

Toaderly wrote:
tfaas wrote:Why drink beer when God gave us the means to make vodka? :wink:
Potato whiskey?

Toaderly, who will celebrate 6 beautiful years of sobriety on 11/22.
Congrats Toaderly. That's a great accomplishment.

angel

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Post by mkaresh » Mon Feb 06, 2006 12:48 am

angel500 wrote:
Toaderly wrote:
tfaas wrote:Why drink beer when God gave us the means to make vodka? :wink:
Potato whiskey?

Toaderly, who will celebrate 6 beautiful years of sobriety on 11/22.
Congrats Toaderly. That's a great accomplishment.

angel
Congrats from me as well. Though it seems this thread got a bit off track since I last checked in.

I've got my first quarter of data in. Unfortunately, there's not as much as I would have liked, as only half of the Five Hundred owners who joined up remained active participants.

I'm doing everything possible to provide a superior alternative to CR and JD Power--but I cannot do it without you guys. The half that did respond to the surveys--thanks, you did a great job. If everyone had done this I'd have some fairly solid results to provide already. As it is...whatever I release will have to be heavily qualified.
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Post by Hoser » Mon Feb 06, 2006 1:01 am

mkaresh wrote:but I cannot do it without you guys. The half that did respond to the surveys--thanks, you did a great job.
You're welcome. Can't wait for this months survey to document a wasted trip to (not) install the parts they needed to fix my seat. :evil:

A minor issue I know, but it's starting to chap my tush (literally). Maybe parts will be available by Spring? :roll:
05 Five Hundred AWD Limited - Dark Blue Pearl / Black 56k mi
96 Taurus LX 118k - Midnight Red
94 Ranger 163k mi
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Post by angel500 » Mon Feb 06, 2006 1:21 am

Hard to be an active participant when I haven't had any service problems, mkaresh. I have only had the regular fuel and filters done as well as tires rotated. Other than that I had the fuel tank straps replaced but supposedly that wasn't one of the things that could be reported on. Waiting for my next oil and filter to get the dash lid replaced.

angel

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Post by scerruti » Mon Feb 06, 2006 5:59 am

Michael,

I was under the impression that it would be very hard to create an acurate statistical sample based on a opt-in model versus a targeted one (my terms, I don't know the real statistics terms).

Can you explain a little in layman's terms how accurate your results will be? Will you need to do any other type of sampling to spot check your results?

Thanks,
Steve

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Post by johnclineii » Mon Feb 06, 2006 7:33 am

And as one who works with statistics and surveys quite frequently, I know how unrealistic it is to expect EVERYONE to do anything. That expectation alone makes me wonder about the vailidity of your "research." Opt in surveys almost never produce anything with any acceptable parameter of survey reliability, much less one where the proponent expected "everyone" to participate.

Sigh.

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Post by leesmack » Mon Feb 06, 2006 7:49 am

i just signed up!!

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Post by mkaresh » Mon Feb 06, 2006 9:25 am

I fear I've been misunderstood.

First, by "active participant" I mean responding to the quarterly survey that asks for an odometer reading. It does not mean actually reporting a service visit.

The way the analysis works is it determines problem rates by dividing the number of service visits by the total number of vehicles reporting an odometer reading at the beginning and end of the period. Reporting an odometer reading takes very little time, some people have reported that it takes under 30 seconds.

Second, when someone signs up to participate, I take that to mean they are going to participate. I know that everyone isn't going to, that's just the way the world is. And the research will work even at the current rate, it's not designed to only work with full participation. It just means that I'm going to need twice as many people to sign up to get the necessary level of participation, and that the data from the first quarter of collection are iffy.

Third, this is considerably different than the usual opt-in survey. I only collect data on service visits going forward. I don't collect repair histories. There are currently 50 2005 Five Hundreds and Freestyles in the panel. At the present time any of these are about as likely to go in for a service visit over the coming year.

It's not a strictly random sample, which would be even better, but it's far superior to having people opt-in to a survey then ask about their past repair histories.

Even a J.D. Power, with a random sample, asks about stuff that's already happened. They also have far from a 100% response rate. Are people with no problems, a few problems, and many problems all equally likely to participate? Doubtful.

With the CR model, people decide each year whether to participate. So the above issue again applies.

With my method, I will require that people remain participants for at least a full quarter (minimum of two responses) for their info to count, and preferably for longer. To maximize the quality of the data, sporadic participants will have to be dropped. Over time an increasingly high quality panel will be assembled, such that in the long run it will yield far higher quality data than any other source.

Still not making sense?
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Post by scerruti » Mon Feb 06, 2006 7:36 pm

No, it makes sense, I am just not convinced that it really gives any more accurate picture than any other mechanism. In fact I feel that, based on my limited statistics knowlege, their larger samples at CR and JDPA will give better results because of error averaging.

However, that is not to say I believe CR or JD Power's consumer satisfaction ratings either. I think both suffer from selective memory of the participants.

My problem with your method is the lack of detail at the component level. By the time you have collected enough data on any particular model it is likely that half of that model's lifetime has already passed. This makes it difficult to do realistic comparisons during the first two or three model years of any new vehicle.

On the other hand many of the new vehicles rely on systems that have been in place in other vehicles for many years. Engines, transmissions, radios, suspensions, frames all get passed from one vehicle to the next, sometimes between manufacturers. I can't see how your statistics make use of that information.

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Post by mkaresh » Mon Feb 06, 2006 8:08 pm

I'm collecting info at the system level, but have not decided how much I'm going to use it. My original intent was just to use it to pinpoint problem areas for further study, as I don't think the average person can reliably state what was done to their car.

I'm not giving participants nearly as much room for selective memory as the others do. If it goes into the shop for anything other than a maintenance or wear item--which are explicitly listed--it's supposed to be reported. I don't ask people to evaluate whether or not a problem is serious. Instead, I ask if a warning light was on, if the vehicle was towed, etc.

Sample size will only be an issue in the short term. I've got a redesign coming, after which I'll be seeking press coverage. Based on what I've seen after blogs posted an entry about my research, each story in the mainstream media could bring in 10,000 people. You typical J.D. Power survey includes 60,000 people.
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Post by mkaresh » Sun Apr 30, 2006 3:59 pm

Just an update. I'm going to take a look at the first six months of data next month. Should be interesting.

Current number of Five Hundreds and Freestyles in the panel:

2005: 56

2006: 17

I could especially use more of the latter.
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Post by hmd2006 » Sun Apr 30, 2006 5:12 pm

mkaresh wrote:Just an update. I'm going to take a look at the first six months of data next month. Should be interesting.

Current number of Five Hundreds and Freestyles in the panel:

2005: 56

2006: 17

I could especially use more of the latter.
I have an 06 and I just signed up. Are we supposed to be able to enter out odometer readings automatically or do we have to wait..?
2006 Merlot Ford Five Hundred Limited with All Wheel Drive, Pebble Tan Interior, Safety Package with side & curtain airbags, Moon roof, and Rear Back Up Sensors.
Pickup date 3/11/06

37,000 miles and not going so strong anymore!

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